NO, HE'S STUCK

Can Obama Avoid a Quagmire in Afghani-
stan? That is the title of a good article in Time
(Mar. 5, '09) by Joe Klein. Joe doesn't say it in
so many words, but he lays out clearly many of
the reasons why the answer is "no." It's the law
of diminishing returns: the more violence, the
more resistance. An increase in our troops there
means an increase in violence, as in Vietnam.

This is not Iraq. Iraq is flat terrain, and acces-
sible from the sea. It has been conquered re-
peately over the centuries. Afghanistan is "the
graveyard of empires." Alexander the Great
gave up there without subduing the country.
Ditto for Genghis Khan. Both had been succes-
ful everywhere else. The British army at the
height of empire in the 19th century was badly
beaten there, and had to retreat in the dead
of winter. Of the 15,000 troops that left Kabul,
one soldier made it out alive to Islamabad. They
let him live to tell the sad tale.

We all know what happened to the Soviet army
there. They had 160,000 troops involved at the
end. We'll have 50,00 of ours there when the
additional 17,000 arrive. It's not nearly enough.
Will it ever be enough! The more wedding par-
ties our drones wipe out by mistake, the more
doors we bust down in the middle of the night
and drag men out and throw them in the pig-sty
at Bagram (Gitmo East), the more support grows
for the Taliban. At some point the people are
going to rise up and say "enough -- get out!"

The Afghanis don't like foreigners. Never have.
Especially when they are not Muslims. In fact,
their religion demands that they throw non-
Muslim invaders out. And they are very religious.
And excellent fighters. Some of the best in the
world. They enjoy it. And the terrain there is
the worst in the world to fight in. It heavily fa-
vors the home team.

Yes, it's a quagmire all right. And yes, Pres. O.
is stuck there, just like L. B. J. was in Viet Nam,
and for similar political reasons. Obama felt he
had to talk tough during the campaign in regard
to Afghanistan because he was getting out of Iraq.
He couldn't sound soft on terrorism. So now the
proper course there, distasteful as it is, is to make
some kind of deal. Something like Pakistan has
done in the Swat valley. But that isn't politically
feasible. So we'll soldier on. We can't be defeated
tactically. We already have been strategically. My
reason for saying that was given by Fareed Zaka-
ria recently in Newsweek (2/9/09): " If the pro-
blems with Pakistan cannot be solved, the war in
Afghanistan cannot be won." It's as simple as that.
And P. S.: Our problems with Pakistan cannot be
solved as long as we take India's side in the Kash-
mir dispute. India refuses to let a free vote in
Kashmir decide whether it's part of India or part
of Pakistan. We support India in that refusal.
Our position, of course, is a repudiation of the
democracy we piously preach all over the world.
And it's also a denial of basic justice for the Mus-
lim majority in Kashmir. So as long as we're
wrong there, we're wrong everywhere in the
Muslim world. And Pakistan's main enemy will
always be India. A Taliban victory in Afghani-
stan is in Pakistan's interest because it's against
India's. That's why we can't get the Pakistan
army excited about fighting the Taliban. They
(the P. army, that is) are basically independent
of any political control, anyway. They allowed
Benazir Bhutto to be murdered. They could have
protected her if they wanted to. But she would
have attempted civilian control of the army, had
she been elected. They didn't want that!

Joe Klein (in the article cited above) ably reviews
some of the outstanding complications in our re-
lationship with Pakistan. He writes: "Our pri-
mary goal has to be to shut down the al-Qaeda
and Taliban safe havens on the Pak. side of the
border. If that can be managed, then the insur-
gency in Afghanistan becomes manageable." (Em-
phasis mine) Well, it isn't and won't be. And, as
Fareed said, if that's the case, then the war in
Afghanistan can't be won. That's the sad truth.
Until the President understands and accepts
that, we'll continue kill and be killed for no good
purpose. We're stuck there.

Jgoodwin004@centurytel.net