WAR UPDATE

We are being told repeatedly that the "surge" is
working. Pres. Bush says the United States is
"kicking ass" in Iraq. Sen. McCain claims "we
are winning in Iraq."

What the Iraqi Defense Minister says is that they
will need U. S. forces in substantial numbers
until at least 2018. That's 10 more years! Sound
like winning? Every commander we've had there
(including Petraeus) has said that no military
solution is possible. Yet that is what we are still
trying to do, and claiming it is a success. That's
the 936th lie we've been told about Iraq!

The good-news peddlers are confusing tactical
success with strategic progress. There clearly is
some tactical success. Violence is down by about
half over a year ago. That's definitely good! The
terrorists are losing there. That also is good, and
is not to be denied or minimized.

But the terrorists are gaining in Afghanistan and
Pakistan, and Iran is gaining strategic leverage
throughout the region, partly because of our
continued failure to make Israel live up to its
many promises and U. N. directives to get their
army of occupation out of the West Bank, along
with the illegal settlements they are continuing to
build there. There is no valid excuse for Israel's
failure to abide by these agreements. Jimmy
Carter masterfully lays out the details of this
travesty, and presents the many agreements and
U. N. actions ignored or broken. His book is:
Palestine Peace or Apartheid, and is a must-read.

The reason terrorists are on the run in Iraq is
because their fellow Muslims there turned against
them, and started helping our guys (for pay!) This
actually started before the surge, and had little to do
with it. We are now paying Sunnis $300 a month to
guard their own neighborhoods. That's one
reason why the violence is down.

Another reason is because Muktada al Sadr, the
fiery leader of the largest Shia militia, ordered his
people to lay down their arms and remain inactive
until further notice. That happened as the surge
began, and probably means al Sadr is waiting to
see and evaluate its consequences. In the mean-
time he is purifying and strengthening his organi-
zation. He remains opposed to the U. S. occupa-
tion, and is not going away.

A third reason the violence is down is because the
ethnic cleansing in Baghdad was pretty well com-
pleted by the time the surge began. Before the
war Baghdad was about two-thirds Sunni and one
third Shia, with some misc. Christians, Kurds,
Turkomen, etc. Now it is two thirds (and maybe
more) Shia, with most of the Christians and
Sunnis gone, and the remaining Sunnis virtual
prisoners walled in their neighborhoods, and
highly patrolled by U. S. and Sunni guards, with
lots of checkpoints. Our army maintains
similar protection for a model show-off market
place where they like to impress visiting U. S.
VIPs with how normal things are in Baghdad.
"Just like home in Indiana," gushed one Con-
gress person supporting the war. Sen. McCain
was similarly impressed on a visit there, where
he had been surrounded by our troops, with
helicopters overhead, and declared that proof
positive of the surge's success.

Other than the conditions cited above, not much
has really changed since the surge. The reason
given for the surge was to provide "a window of
opportunity" for nat'l reconciliation and political
accommodation. That hasn't happened. The Shia
dominated government still won't let Sunnis into
meaningful participation in either the national
army or the police. Way too many innocent Shia
civilians have been slaughtered. Sunnis can't be
trusted. It's as simple (and difficult) as that! The
Sunnis are only 20% of population in Iraq, but
they long ruled over and brutally oppressed the
60% that are Shia. The Sunnis are determined
that the (inferior, in their minds) Shia, who are
not even genuine Muslims to them, shall not
rule over them. As I have written before, it would
be somewhat like southern whites, after our civil
war, letting blacks govern them. You know how
that worked!

So the surge, in its stated purpose to bring about
political progress, has been a failure. It hasn't
worked! Not only are we not winning, we have
no strategy for winning. We never have had. (If
that isn't clear to you, please read the excellent
book on this by Tom Ricks: Fiasco. Another good
source is Bob Woodward's State of Denial.

A strategy for peace in Iraq must involve its
neighbors and enlist their support. This was
urged by the Iraq Study Group, and has been
advocated by virtually every expert on the Middle
East. It has been, and continues to be, ignored
by the Bush administration. That's why Bush
rejected the report of the I. S. G. Bush is still
set on regime change in Iran. It's hard to have
diplomatic relations with a government you are
bent on overthrowing.

So yes, we can't have peace in Iraq until we deal
constructively with next-door neighbor Iran. And
we won't deal with Iran because they help Hamas
and Hezbollah, who are fighting for Palestinian
freedom from Israel. That's why, when Bush
recently toured the Arab world seeking help to
counter the growing power and influence of Shia
Iran, the Arab leaders told him to get the Israel-
Palestine situation resolved first. Then they'll
help him with Iran. Right now, Iran is helping
them in supporting freedom for the Palestinians.
The Palestinian issue is also kicking up big
trouble in Lebanon, these leaders reminded Bush.
Hezbollah started up in Lebanon because of
Israel's invasion of that unlucky country a few
years back. Chickens have a way of coming home
to roost. We insist on dealing with all these as
separate pieces of a puzzle. But they are all inter-
connected by religion, culture, and history with
colonialism and the West. We need to put the
individual pieces together and get the big picture.
That would be an over-all strategy. Anything else
is futile, and we are continuing to spin our wheels.

I tried to make this point in the following letter I
sent to the editor of the Portland Oregonian. It
appeared there on 1/06/08 under the heading:

POURING FUEL ON FIRES

"Are we serious about stopping terrorism?
Shouldn't we recognize what most drives the anger
behind it? King Abdullah II of Jordan says the
main reason for Muslim terrorism is the Israel-
Palestine situation. That is the core issue, he says,
from which all the other troubles flow. 'The root
cause of terrorism is the Israeli-Palestinian con-
flict,' says Pakistani Pres. Pervez Musharraf, who
is increasingly dealing with the spreading extrem-
ism in his own country, where Benezir Bhutto was
recently murdered
.
'The West will not know peace until Palestinians
have peace,' Osama bin Laden has sworn. And
you can take that to the bank. Hunting down and
destroying individual terrorists makes us feel
better, but does little to end the problem. We are
dealing with symptoms. There is an unending
pipeline of new terrorists coming, until we deal
decisively with the cause of the trouble. Attacking
Muslim countries is like pouring gasoline on a
fire. It's dangerous, and it increases our difficulties
around the world. It also meets the definition of
insanity.