NOT SO FAST ON THE SURGE!

Michael Gerson in today's Washington Post lauds
Sen. McSame for "the dramatic success of the surge
in Iraq," and faults Obama for opposing it. What
he has forgotten is that the purpose of the surge
was to achieve political accommodation. That hasn't
happened, and probably won't before we leave, if
ever.

So the surge was a tactical success, and a strategic
failure. We are no closer to political agreement
than we were pre-surge. And we may be further
from it, because a serious split is developing now
between the Kurds and the Shia. Pre-surge, the
Kurds were generally supportive of the Shia-
dominated government. That is no longer the
case. The Kurds, who are not Arabs, have been
oppressed historically by Sunni Arabs, and now
fear the same from the reigning Shia Arabs. The
20% of Iraqis that are Kurds are strongly pro-
American, and want us to stay on in Iraq. The
remaining 80% (90% of them), want us gone, and
are refusing to sign a status of forces agreement
with us so we can legally stay.

Obama was right of course, when he doubted that
added troops in Iraq would "solve the sectarian
violence." They didn't and couldn't. They curbed
it some, and we are glad for that, but they didn't
solve it. It will flare up again when we leave.
That's why we can't reduce our troop numbers
now below pre-surge levels. Nothing was settled
by the surge. Violence was reduced (temporarily)
without reducing it's causes in the age-old Shia-
Sunni struggle for dominance.

Iran now has much more influence on Iraqi poli-
tics than we do. And ours is declining with time,
as theirs is growing. As the Iraq Study Group
reported a couple of years ago, the only path to
peace in Iraq lies in cooperation and agreement
among the surrounding countries, including es-
specially Syria and Iran. We won't even talk to
them. So we'll keep spinning our wheels, wast-
ing lives and money, and calling it success and
winning! Have a nice day.

jgoodwin004@centurytel.net