IRAQ TIGER

The tiger we continue to ride in Iraq is the Shi/
Sunni blood feud. Saddam was the gatekeeper
who kept that tiger caged. When he was gone,
ethnic cleansing ensued. Four million Iraqis
are out of their homes, half of those are out of
the country, most of them Sunnis.

The "Surge" got us finally atop the tiger and
has calmed him somewhat, but not entirely:
"Despite all the talk about Iraq being "calm,"
I'd like to point out that the month just before
the last visit Barack Obama made to Iraq (he
went in January, 2006), there were 537 civi-
lian and Iraqi Sec. Force casualties. In
June of this year, 2008, there were 554 ac-
cording to AP. These are official statistics
gathered passively that probably only capture
about 10 per cent of the true toll." (Quoted
from http://www.juancole.com/ )

As long as we are in the saddle and feeding the
tiger by paying people to be nice, it's steady
as she goes. Bush-Mac insist that "leaving is
losing." Staying costs $10-12 bn. per month.
The tricky part of riding a tiger comes when you
dismount! What happens then?

Iraq is 60% Shia, who make up most of the
current government. So far they have refused
to integrate the Sunni Arabs (20 % of the pop.)
into either the army or the police. This is a
major sticking point, along with an agreement
on splitting oil revenues fairly. Until these
issues are resolved, minor agreements on
trivials are fairly meaningless. As are claims to
"political progress." The tiger may be snoozing.
He is far from tamed or dead. For the history
and meaning of this age-old conflict, see Vali
Nasr's masterful The Shia Revival. (I reviewed
this in a previous blog.)

jgoodwin004@centurytel.net