THE LOUSY STATE OF THE UNION

Pitiful is another word for the state of the
union, as was Pres. Bush's report on it, and
is the cowardly political performance of the
Democratic-led Congress in knuckling under
to him on issue after issue. "We faced hard
decisions about peace and war, rising compe-
tition in the world economy, and the health
and welfare of our citizens," the president
told us in his speech. Yes, and he has mis-
handled all of them, and congress still won't
blow the whistle on him, and stop our losses.

We continue to subsidize with tax breaks U. S.
companies dismantling our industrial base and
shipping it overseas. We are losing our manu-
facturing jobs, and increasingly our high tech
and white collar jobs, and replacing those with
hamburger flipping and custodial work. You
can't support a family on the latter. Our working
class struggles heroically, but is falling farther
and farther behind. That's the state of the union!

As the Federal Reserve keeps lowering interest
rates to help the stock market, they are devaluing
the dollar and chipping away returns on savings.
This is dangerously inflationary, says Robert
Samuelson in the 2/4/08 Newsweek.

We are over-reaching internationally, and
heading into national decline. Our wars are
costing us $9 billion per month, and we are
doing it all on a credit card. Our national debt
is now over $9 trillion and climbing. We keep it
afloat by borrowing from the Arabs and the Chi-
nese, neither of whom are really our friends.
They are like wolves watching a fat, stupid pig,
and licking their chops. Some of our largest
banking and investment houses, having lost
billions in the last few months, have had to sell
chunks of their companies to foreigners in
order to avoid bankruptcy.

"As the American economy slows down," observes
Fareed Zakaria (in the same issue of Newsweek),
". . . the fastest growing big economies in the
world -- China, India, Brazil -- appear set to con-
tinue with their robust growth." They find that
our cheap dollar makes investment in America
very attractive. The more of us they own, the
more they control. That's the way it works!

"The United States is beginning a period of
relative decline," says Zakaria. "It may not be
steep or dramatic, but the fact that it is beginning
is clear. Even if one assumes a slow down, the
other big economies will still grow at two or three
times the pace of the West. Over time they will
take up a larger share of the global economy ---
and the United States and Western Europe will
have thinner slices. This is not defeatism, it's
math." And it's truth.

And we are in denial. The people running for
national office recognize some of the problems,
but offer little in concrete solutions. Mr. Romney
told the auto workers in Michigan that he will
restore the U. S. auto industry to its former
glory, and bring back all the lost jobs! He spoke
as if there is no Toyota, and no moving of our
auto jobs to Mexico and Canada. It's fantasy!
The jobs that are gone are not coming back. We
need to create new jobs restoring our broken
infrastructure and developing environment-
friendly energy sources, such as wind and solar.

As for our president, "His is a legacy of dulled
American dreams at home and debilitating
American influence abroad," writes Marie Cocco
in the (1/31/08) Oregonian. Mr. B. went to the
Middle East and begged the Saudis to lower the
price of oil. They curtly brushed him off, and
reminded him for the umpteenth time to get
the Israelis out of the West Bank. Then they'll
talk. Meanwhile, Lebanon teeters on the brink
of civil war. The Shia there (Hezbollah), backed
by Syria and Iran, are at odds with the Sunnis
and the Christians (backed by the U. S. and
Israel). We won't talk to Syria or Iran, because
they are helping Hezbollah and Hamas, neither
of whom even existed before Israel's brutal and
illegal occupation of the West Bank. End the
occupation and you end Hezbollah and Hamas.
Then we can talk to Syria about Lebanon, and
Iran about Iraq, as our Iraq Study Group urged.
Vali Nasr, an Iranian-born professor at Tufts,
explains all of this brilliantly in The Shia Revival.
Too bad no one in leadership here has the wit or
the will to lay all this out clearly to the American
public. No one running in the primaries will do
it either. Everyone is afraid of the Israel lobby.
Israel is tragically and criminally wrong in this
quarrel, as Jimmy Carter explains objectively
and accurately in Palestine Peace or Apartheid.
All of the rest of the world understands this.
It's another reason for our decline in moral
influence and prestige. It makes a mockery of
our oft repeated concerns for human rights and
democracy.

BTW, if you are not in the sun every day,
remember to take supplemental vitamin D!
You need a lot more than you get in foods
that have it added.

jgoodwin004@centurytel.net

THE LOST RELEVANCE OF THE
RELIGIOUS RIGHT

It won't be going away soon, but the religious
right (RR) is losing its political clout and its
cultural relevance. Philip Jenkins, long an
approving chronicler of the movement, admits
in an op-ed that appeared in The Oregonian
and The Los Angeles Times that "the dependable
Republican coalition forged during the 1970s
looks terminally ill."

But, he says, don't write off the right just yet. He
adds: "We could soon face the same circumstances
that solidified the conservative base in the 1970s."
But he incorrectly claims of that period: "there was
no single issue or grievance that drove religious
believers to the conservative banner."

That's hogwash! The single issue was sexual
liberation. Whether the topic was abortion rights,
homosexuality, women's lib, sex education,
gender roles, whatever, it all boiled down to
society regulating sex along traditional lines.
That battle is about over. The younger generation
has accepted sexual diversity, and moved on to
concerns for the environment, world peace,
global warming, and so on. They aren't interested
in regulating personal behaviour. That hound
don't hunt anymore.

Pat Robertson threw in the "values" towel when
he endorsed Rudy Giuliani for president. He
was both admitting and demonstrating that the
religious right is now irrelevant. Giuliani is
pro-abortion, pro-gay, and lived openly with his
mistress while still married to someone else!
The rest of the country understands Rudy's
lack of suitability even if Pat doesn't! It's sad.
The battle has moved on.

jgoodwin004@centurytel.net

FAKE DEMOCRACY

Pres. Bush recently toured the Middle East
bragging about the "democracy" we set up in
Iraq. But it is a sham, and everyone but Bush
understands that. Democracies are ruled by
law, and protect minorities. Iraq is ruled by
warring militias and tribal groups, and ethnic
cleansing continues, with 100 or more murders
each week. (104 civilian deaths by violence
between 1/19 and 1/24/08).

The highly sectarian (Shia) "government" lives
and operates behind thick walls in the Green
Zone, and wants us to stay and protect them
until at least 2018! In a real democracy, the
government operates openly among, and is
supported by, the people. That doesn't happen
in Iraq because we never bothered to establish
law and order there. People can still get up in the
morning and find a note on their door that says:
"you have 24 hours to be out of this house and
neighborhood, or you and your family will be
killed." It does no good to call the police,
because the police will not protect them, and
may, in fact be complicit with the folks who
wrote the note. The Republicans claim we are
"winning" in Iraq. Tell that to the 2+ million
who have fled their homes!

Iraq got it bassackwards: they were pushed by us
to have elections before they had public order, so
they were further polarized and fragmented.
"There is no military solution," say all of our
generals who have commanded there. And there
is no non-military solution either, that Bush is
willing to entertain. All he can offer is analogies
with Germany and Japan, where we have kept
troops for 60 years! And they aren't fighting us!

jgoodwin004@centurytel.net

WAR UPDATE

We are being told repeatedly that the "surge" is
working. Pres. Bush says the United States is
"kicking ass" in Iraq. Sen. McCain claims "we
are winning in Iraq."

What the Iraqi Defense Minister says is that they
will need U. S. forces in substantial numbers
until at least 2018. That's 10 more years! Sound
like winning? Every commander we've had there
(including Petraeus) has said that no military
solution is possible. Yet that is what we are still
trying to do, and claiming it is a success. That's
the 936th lie we've been told about Iraq!

The good-news peddlers are confusing tactical
success with strategic progress. There clearly is
some tactical success. Violence is down by about
half over a year ago. That's definitely good! The
terrorists are losing there. That also is good, and
is not to be denied or minimized.

But the terrorists are gaining in Afghanistan and
Pakistan, and Iran is gaining strategic leverage
throughout the region, partly because of our
continued failure to make Israel live up to its
many promises and U. N. directives to get their
army of occupation out of the West Bank, along
with the illegal settlements they are continuing to
build there. There is no valid excuse for Israel's
failure to abide by these agreements. Jimmy
Carter masterfully lays out the details of this
travesty, and presents the many agreements and
U. N. actions ignored or broken. His book is:
Palestine Peace or Apartheid, and is a must-read.

The reason terrorists are on the run in Iraq is
because their fellow Muslims there turned against
them, and started helping our guys (for pay!) This
actually started before the surge, and had little to do
with it. We are now paying Sunnis $300 a month to
guard their own neighborhoods. That's one
reason why the violence is down.

Another reason is because Muktada al Sadr, the
fiery leader of the largest Shia militia, ordered his
people to lay down their arms and remain inactive
until further notice. That happened as the surge
began, and probably means al Sadr is waiting to
see and evaluate its consequences. In the mean-
time he is purifying and strengthening his organi-
zation. He remains opposed to the U. S. occupa-
tion, and is not going away.

A third reason the violence is down is because the
ethnic cleansing in Baghdad was pretty well com-
pleted by the time the surge began. Before the
war Baghdad was about two-thirds Sunni and one
third Shia, with some misc. Christians, Kurds,
Turkomen, etc. Now it is two thirds (and maybe
more) Shia, with most of the Christians and
Sunnis gone, and the remaining Sunnis virtual
prisoners walled in their neighborhoods, and
highly patrolled by U. S. and Sunni guards, with
lots of checkpoints. Our army maintains
similar protection for a model show-off market
place where they like to impress visiting U. S.
VIPs with how normal things are in Baghdad.
"Just like home in Indiana," gushed one Con-
gress person supporting the war. Sen. McCain
was similarly impressed on a visit there, where
he had been surrounded by our troops, with
helicopters overhead, and declared that proof
positive of the surge's success.

Other than the conditions cited above, not much
has really changed since the surge. The reason
given for the surge was to provide "a window of
opportunity" for nat'l reconciliation and political
accommodation. That hasn't happened. The Shia
dominated government still won't let Sunnis into
meaningful participation in either the national
army or the police. Way too many innocent Shia
civilians have been slaughtered. Sunnis can't be
trusted. It's as simple (and difficult) as that! The
Sunnis are only 20% of population in Iraq, but
they long ruled over and brutally oppressed the
60% that are Shia. The Sunnis are determined
that the (inferior, in their minds) Shia, who are
not even genuine Muslims to them, shall not
rule over them. As I have written before, it would
be somewhat like southern whites, after our civil
war, letting blacks govern them. You know how
that worked!

So the surge, in its stated purpose to bring about
political progress, has been a failure. It hasn't
worked! Not only are we not winning, we have
no strategy for winning. We never have had. (If
that isn't clear to you, please read the excellent
book on this by Tom Ricks: Fiasco. Another good
source is Bob Woodward's State of Denial.

A strategy for peace in Iraq must involve its
neighbors and enlist their support. This was
urged by the Iraq Study Group, and has been
advocated by virtually every expert on the Middle
East. It has been, and continues to be, ignored
by the Bush administration. That's why Bush
rejected the report of the I. S. G. Bush is still
set on regime change in Iran. It's hard to have
diplomatic relations with a government you are
bent on overthrowing.

So yes, we can't have peace in Iraq until we deal
constructively with next-door neighbor Iran. And
we won't deal with Iran because they help Hamas
and Hezbollah, who are fighting for Palestinian
freedom from Israel. That's why, when Bush
recently toured the Arab world seeking help to
counter the growing power and influence of Shia
Iran, the Arab leaders told him to get the Israel-
Palestine situation resolved first. Then they'll
help him with Iran. Right now, Iran is helping
them in supporting freedom for the Palestinians.
The Palestinian issue is also kicking up big
trouble in Lebanon, these leaders reminded Bush.
Hezbollah started up in Lebanon because of
Israel's invasion of that unlucky country a few
years back. Chickens have a way of coming home
to roost. We insist on dealing with all these as
separate pieces of a puzzle. But they are all inter-
connected by religion, culture, and history with
colonialism and the West. We need to put the
individual pieces together and get the big picture.
That would be an over-all strategy. Anything else
is futile, and we are continuing to spin our wheels.

I tried to make this point in the following letter I
sent to the editor of the Portland Oregonian. It
appeared there on 1/06/08 under the heading:

POURING FUEL ON FIRES

"Are we serious about stopping terrorism?
Shouldn't we recognize what most drives the anger
behind it? King Abdullah II of Jordan says the
main reason for Muslim terrorism is the Israel-
Palestine situation. That is the core issue, he says,
from which all the other troubles flow. 'The root
cause of terrorism is the Israeli-Palestinian con-
flict,' says Pakistani Pres. Pervez Musharraf, who
is increasingly dealing with the spreading extrem-
ism in his own country, where Benezir Bhutto was
recently murdered
.
'The West will not know peace until Palestinians
have peace,' Osama bin Laden has sworn. And
you can take that to the bank. Hunting down and
destroying individual terrorists makes us feel
better, but does little to end the problem. We are
dealing with symptoms. There is an unending
pipeline of new terrorists coming, until we deal
decisively with the cause of the trouble. Attacking
Muslim countries is like pouring gasoline on a
fire. It's dangerous, and it increases our difficulties
around the world. It also meets the definition of
insanity.

ADVICE FOR OBAMA

It's clear from New Hampshire that Obama
needs to majorly emphasize the difference
in basic vision between himself and Mrs.
Clinton. I have tried to get at this in the
following letter to the editor of our local
(Albany, OR) paper: "Your 1/9/07 editorial
wonders just what kind of change Obama
represents. It's actually a pretty sweeping
change in national direction, not just a change
in the way things get done (Hillary). 70% of us
think the country is going in the wrong
direction. The system is broken. We are
headed over a cliff. We were wrong to go into
Iraq, and O. said so. He wants to get us out.

We have been wrong in refusing to talk to Iran
and Syria as has been urged by many of our elder
statesmen. Barack will talk to them without
preconditions, and seek understanding and
cooperation to help with Iraq. He's an inter-
nationalist, and will end our "my way or the
highway" kind of diplomacy.

Confucius remarked that "the great man is
universally minded, and no partisan." That's
Obama! He has JFK's smarts and charisma,
and MLK's eloquence and idealsim. That's a
load of talent, and suggests the possibility of
greatness. Lincoln included members of the
opposition party in his cabinent to unite the
union in the civil war. I can see Barack having
a Republican like Colin Powell in his cabinent.

The people know what's right and wrong. They
need a leader that can move them (as did
Lincoln) to do what they know is right. Where
there is no vision the people perish. We need
Barack's soaring vision and inspiration to get
things done.

jgoodwin004@centurytel.net

DON'T "DISS" HOPE!

In the last blog, I discussed the Clinton camp's
efforts to "swift boat" Barak with references to
his teenage experimentation with drugs, and
his alleged Muslim background. But the most
persistent attack on him has been that he is
inexperienced.

Obama has pointed out that there is good and
bad experience. The people of Iowa agree, and
decided that Washington experience is mostly
the latter. So they added to Hillary's bad
experiences. She has had many, and unless
she changes her tactics completely, is in for more.

Now she needs to embrace change in her staff
and in her tone. Her personal attacks on Barak
as "naive" have backfired. She ridiculed his
message of hope as mere wishful thinking. He
isn't ready for prime time, she claimed. She
kept yelling, "look, I'm ready, I'm ready." It
didn't sell. If she keeps that up, she'll be ready
for early retirement!

As I observed six months ago, when I endorsed
him, Obama has JFK's smarts and charisma, and
MLK's idealism and eloquence. That's a powerful
load of talent, and smacks of possible greatness.
Lincoln had two years of experience in the U. S.
Congress when he ran for president, and had been
defeated for reelection because he opposed our
war on Mexico. Obama opposed our similarly
misconceived war on Iraq, while Hillary voted
for it. Good sense is a rare commodity, and
trumps political expediency every time!

It may be too much to expect, but we can hope
that the voting public will realize that Barak's
childhood experience of living among Muslims
in Indonesia taught him a great deal about that
culture. He knows from first hand, for example,
that Muslims are not inherently violent, hateful,
anti-West, or religiously intolerant.

He also knows that he must confront and
expose the kind of ignorant prejudice expressed
by a retired military intelligence officer and state
co-chair (N. H.) of Vets for Rudy, who, speaking
of Rudy, said: "He has got, I believe, the know-
ledge and judgment to attack one of the difficult
problems in current history, and that is the rise
of the Muslims. Make no mistake about it; this
hasn't happened for a thousand years. These
people are very, very dedicated. They're also
very smart in their own way, and we need to keep
their feet to the fire and keep pressing these
people until we defeat them or chase them back
to their caves, or, in other words, get rid of them."

All one billion, 300 thousand of them? That
could be as expensive as it is unnecessary! We
are going broke just fighting them in Iraq and
Afghanistan. Shouldn't we first find out what's
bugging increasing numbers of them and making
some of those violent towards us?

Inspired by Obama's call for hope, I'm hoping
that his knowledge of the Muslim world, and
sensitivity to it, will enable him to bridge the
growing chasm between us and them, and give
us some much needed insight into the real
causes of Muslim terrorism. Nobody commits
suicide without a reason, especially when that
is against your religion.

If we are serious about stopping terrorism (and
I sometimes have my doubts), then shouldn't
we take seriously what Muslim leaders have
been saying about it for a long time? Shouldn't
we recognize what most drives the anger behind
it? King Abdullah of Jordan says the main reason
for Muslim terrorism is the Israel-Palestine
situation. That is the core issue, he says, from
which all the other troubles flow. (Most Muslims
believe, by the way, that the real reason we took
out Saddam was because he posed a threat to
Israel not to us!)

"The root cause of terrorism is the Israeli-
Palestine conflict," says Pres. Musharraf of
Pakistan. He is increasingly dealing with the
spreading extremism coming from hatred for
the West, and the U. S. in particular. "The West
will not know peace until the Palestinians have
peace." That from Osama bin Laden. And you
can take it to the bank.

But isn't the Muslim world dug in, and determined
to wage war against us, as the Neo-cons insist?
Nope. That's not true! It's false that most
Muslims support terror, even though 60% of
Iraqis think it's OK to attack our G. I.s (Iraq is a
mess of our making, not theirs.) The broader
picture is explained by Reza Aslan in the best
book on Islam available: No God but God.
He writes (on p. 17):
". . . the day before the London bombings
(7/16/05), one hundred seventy of the world's
leading clerics and scholars, representing every
major sect and school of law in Islam, gathered
in Amman, Jordan, where, in an unprecedented
display of inter sectarian collaboration, they
issued a joint fatwa, or legal ruling, denouncing
all acts of terrorism committed in the name of
Islam." (Ital. mine)

We need to get together with all people of good
will and seek peace, beginning with getting
Israel out of the West Bank, and off the backs
of the Palestinians. Then we can have hope.
And we need to do it before everyone has the bomb!

jgoodwin004@centurytel.net